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- Best Nba Win Total Bets Against
- Best Nba Win Total Bets
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The structure and format for the 2020-21 NBA season has been revealed. The schedule will be released in two halves -- what the league is calling the First Half and the Second Half. The schedule for the First Half, which will run from Dec. 22 to March 4, will be released around the start of training camp, set for Dec. 1. The Second Half of the season will run from March 11 to May 16.
What should we expect from teams in a 72-game season? ESPN betting experts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Preston Johnson offer their best bets for the win totals on the board.
- ESPN betting experts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Preston Johnson offer their best bets for the win totals on the board. Win Totals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Los Angeles Lakers under 47 wins.
- After assessing the situation the best I could, here are the best NBA win totals to consider when betting on the 2020 restart. Dallas Mavericks Over 4 Wins (-125) Kristaps Porzingis finally started settling into a rhythm just before play was halted.
- 5 Best Win Total Over Bets for the 2019-20 NBA Season Andre Drummond and the Pistons are a good bet to snap their two-game skid as they host the Nets. Photo By Keith Allison (Flickr). The Denver Nuggets finished second in the Western Conference last season with 54 wins.
The NBA team projected to be in the league basement is the Cleveland Cavaliers, with sportsbooks tabbing their O/U win total at 21.5. Cleveland, which finished last season with 19 wins in 65 games, edges out the New York Knicks (O/U 22.5) for the team with the lowest line.
Win Totals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Los Angeles Lakers under 47 wins
Johnson: I'm happy to fade the NBA champs in a season starting at least a month earlier than LeBron James wanted it to. There are already rumors flying around that LeBron could sit out the first few weeks, and at the very least he will be resting throughout the 72-game season more frequently for load management. I didn't like the Danny Green trade for Dennis Schroder very much. People still undervalue Green's impact on the basketball court -- even after a playoffs resulting in an NBA title in which Green led the Lakers in net rating.
Now, the rosters aren't whole yet, so it's hard for me to do my own personal projections until we know the results of free agency and get schedules set, but there isn't much that the Lakers can do outside of the midlevel exception to improve their roster. The Clippers, Warriors and Suns in the Pacific Division all will be improved, and throw in other Western Conference teams like the Blazers and Mavericks making impactful moves themselves and it's hard to envision the Lakers duplicating the regular-season success they had a year ago.
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Kezirian: This is too high for a team that played deep into the 2020 season by winning the Finals and has already voiced frustration about a short turnaround. I fully expect LeBron and Anthony Davis to pace themselves significantly out of the gate via load management. Plus, I feel like this newly assembled Lakers team treated last season's start with high importance because it knew it needed to evolve as a unit and develop that strong defense. But now they know they can do it, and, frankly, just did it without any home-court advantage.
Additionally, LeBron's track record has shown an indifference to the top seed. Forty-seven wins in this shortened season is 53.5 in a full season. That's a lot for this entire situation, especially with their division improving with Phoenix's trade for Chris Paul and any unknowns that COVID-19 can present. Klay Thompson's injury might switch a loss or two to Golden State into a win, but this is still an under play for me.
Miami Heat under 44
Fortenbaugh: Miami's home/road splits last season were some of the most polarizing in the league, with the Heat going 29-7 at home and ranking first in offensive rating, versus 15-22 on the road while ranking 20th in offensive rating. This is a well-run organization with elite coaching, but after an October run to the NBA Finals followed by a short offseason, how much will Miami have left in the tank? This total is asking the Heat to win 61.1 percent of its games for a push, something the franchise hasn't done since the LeBron-Wade-Bosh era in 2013-2014.
Philadelphia 76ers over 42.5
Best Nba Win Total Bets Against
Johnson: Bow down to Daryl Morey, who just three weeks after being hired found a way to get out of the $81 million still left over three years to Al Horford while simultaneously trading for much-needed 3-point shooting in Green and Seth Curry. Everyone complained about the fit in Philly with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid alongside Horford and how much the 76ers underachieved... and they still won 43 games in 73 games played! Simmons missed a chunk of games with an injury, as well. The reset with Doc Rivers as head coach is refreshing, and with a more analytically savvy approach and a well-suited roster, I can buy this team getting to 43 again.
Dallas Mavericks over 42
Johnson: I liked this Mavericks over 42 wins bet before the moves they made Wednesday night in the draft with the Josh Green and Tyrell Terry selections and acquiring Josh Richardson from the Sixers. The Mavericks' record last season was the biggest discrepancy in the entire NBA when comparing their actual wins to their expected Pythagorean wins. The Mavs won 43 games, but based on their underlying points scored numbers they performed like a 50-win team. They played in only 75 games. Are you telling me that in Year 3 of Luka Doncic the Mavs can't get to 42-plus wins in a 72-game season?
I think the overreaction to Kristaps Porzingis possibly missing the start of the season is overblown. His win shares per 48 minutes last season was .138, so unless he were to somehow miss the entire season, his value to the Mavs doesn't justify such a drop-off in projected wins.
Memphis Grizzlies under 32.5
Johnson: I feel like this is being lined as if Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to be playing for Memphis from the get-go. The fact of the matter is, Jackson had knee surgery in August and likely won't be 100 percent. The Grizzlies were a surprise regular-season squad that peaked pre-bubble, but we saw them come down to earth in Orlando. The West is so tough, and I'm having trouble seeing the Grizz duplicate the success from last season without a healthy JJJ against stiffer competition. If they can win at the same rate as they did in 2019, then they'll hit 33 wins exactly. I'm willing to bet that they don't.
Detroit Pistons under 23.5
Best Nba Win Total Bets
Johnson: If one thing was clear from NBA draft night it was that Detroit is in full-blown rebuild mode. The Pistons made multiple deals to acquire extra draft picks and either traded away competent players for those picks or took on washed-up contracts. With Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose seemingly next out the door, I'm not sure how a team that won only 20 games in 66 tries last year -- while trying -- is going to hit 24-plus in tank mode. They already had arguably the worst roster in the NBA, and it just got worse.
Cleveland Cavaliers over 22.5
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Kezirian: It's not my favorite play, largely because it takes a leap of faith, but I am leaning to the over. The futures of Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are key components. Thompson will likely go elsewhere in free agency because Andre Drummond opted in to this season. He was the focal point, since being acquired via trade from the Pistons. Love is annually mentioned in trade rumors and has a checkered injury history. However, if you can pair Drummond with Love to go along with an improving backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, you have a frisky team that can snag some wins.
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A major component to the discussion is the Cavs no longer have John Beilein, who created a controversy that derailed the season. J.B. Biggerstaff takes over on a permanent basis, and this team seems headed in the right direction. Plus, they drafted Auburn's Isaac Okoro, and the big man could be NBA-ready defensively. This is not a good team, but it's also not a bad team committed to a rebuild.